Analyzing Recent Developments in Taiwan and Greater East Asia
Overview of the China-Taiwan Weekly Update
The China–Taiwan Weekly Update is a comprehensive report produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). This joint effort aims to monitor Chinese military ambitions toward Taiwan and explore strategies for deterring the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggressive actions. The update primarily addresses paths to control Taiwan and significant cross-Strait dynamics, providing critical context for policymakers and analysts alike.
Legislative Recall Votes in Taiwan
On August 23, 2025, Taiwan held its second round of legislative recall votes. Unfortunately for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the results reflected a disheartening trend. The overall turnout and proportion of votes favoring recalls were notably lower compared to the first round on July 26. In fact, none of the 31 recall elections yielded a majority in favor of removing the legislators. The highest support for a recall was a mere 48.4% for Ye Yuan-chih, with only a handful of votes meeting the threshold of 25% necessary for an effective recall.
This sharp decline in public engagement underscores a significant failure of the DPP to galvanize voters against opposition legislators from the Kuomintang (KMT). Average support for recalls dropped from 42.2% in July to 33.8% in August, coupled with a drop in turnout from 56.1% to 49.2%. This failure may not only embolden the KMT but may also politically strengthen it by reducing the incentive for cooperation with the DPP, as the Taiwanese people demonstrated a reluctance to remove KMT legislators despite their controversial actions.
Changes in DPP Leadership
The DPP faced backlash in light of these recall failures, prompting changes within its leadership. Hsu Kuo-yung, the former Interior Minister, took over as secretary general after his predecessor resigned. Although calls for DPP Chair William Lai Ching-te to step down have been widespread, he has remained steadfast in his position thus far. Legislative minority leader Ker Chien-ming, who had a pivotal role in the recall campaigns, also aims to retain his leadership post.
Taiwan’s Defense Budget Approval
In a notable move, Taiwan’s Executive Yuan approved a budget proposal on August 21, aiming to increase military spending from 2.45% to 3.32% of GDP for 2026. This proposed budget includes special provisions for procuring anti-tank missiles, artillery, drones, and surface-to-air missiles. President Lai expressed aspirations to raise military spending to 5% of GDP by 2030.
The budget’s fate lies with the KMT-controlled Legislative Yuan, which has shown support for enhanced military expenditures but may contest various elements of the budget. Notably, the KMT has criticized the allocations for failing to adequately support military benefits for current and retired personnel, raising concerns about recruitment and retention.
South Korea’s Diplomatic Moves
In the broader Asian context, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has been actively seeking dialogue between the United States, South Korea, and North Korea. However, his overtures have been met with refusal by the North. In a bid to foster discussions, Lee proposed a multi-step roadmap on August 21 aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, which includes freezing, reducing, and ultimately dismantling North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Recently, there was a meeting between Lee and President Donald Trump on August 25, where both leaders discussed a potential increase in South Korea’s defense budget, currently around 2.6% of GDP. National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac noted that enhancing military spending is crucial for South Korea to assume a leadership role in its military cooperation.
Enhancements in PLA Maritime Capability
Amidst the developments, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has actively engaged in activities suggesting preparation for potential amphibious operations against Taiwan. On August 23, a pattern of civilian roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) vessels deviated from their usual routes to dock at ports in Fujian, indicating involvement in military exercises aimed at bolstering amphibious capabilities.
These ro-ro vessels, known for facilitating troop transport, enhance the PLA’s logistical capacity essential for an invasion scenario. The increasing production of civilian ro-ro vessels—estimated to be around 200 more by 2026—further underscores a strategic pivot wherein these vessels may serve dual military and commercial purposes.
Espionage Incident Involving U.S. Navy Sailor
An espionage case has drawn attention with Jinchao Wei, a U.S. Navy sailor stationed on the USS Essex, being convicted for relaying sensitive military information to a PRC intelligence officer. Such incidents pose significant risks to U.S. military superiority in the Pacific, emphasizing ongoing concerns related to espionage stemming from China.
Wei’s actions are reflective of broader espionage schemes targeting U.S. military personnel, which have seen multiple convictions in recent years. The U.S. remains watchful as these activities continue to impact strategic operations and military readiness.
Regional Engagement in Northeast Asia
On the diplomatic front, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is set to attend the upcoming PRC’s Victory Day parade on September 3, marking an increased alignment between North Korea and China. This inaugural visit since 2019 highlights the potential for strategic collaboration, particularly as the PRC seeks to counterbalance U.S. influence across the region.
Recent engagement showcases the fragility of inter-Korean relations with ongoing tensions over denuclearization efforts. The current standoff persists despite calls from the U.S. and South Korea for constructive dialogue.
Philippines’ Escalating Naval Disputes
In the South China Sea, recent activities reveal escalating tensions between the Philippines and China. The PRC dispatched two research vessels around Scarborough Shoal, seemingly to enhance maritime domain awareness in support of increased naval presence. The region has seen frequent confrontations as the PRC expands its operations, complicating already fraught territorial disputes.
Moreover, the Philippine military reported aggressive maneuvers by Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal, indicating a marked increase in tension following recent incidents involving direct confrontations. This escalation necessitates a strategic reevaluation of the Philippines’ naval practices and its alliances in the region.
Conclusion: A Complex and Evolving Landscape
These developments illustrate a multifaceted regional security landscape in which Taiwan faces increasing pressure from China amid internal political challenges. The evolving dynamics in South Korea, the persistent threats of espionage, and escalating maritime confrontations in the South China Sea bear watching, highlighting the complexities of territorial sovereignty and regional cooperation.
This article aims to deliver nuanced, structured insights into recent geopolitical shifts in East Asia and their implications for international security and diplomacy.