The Ethical and Strategic Dimensions of Drone Strikes: Insights from Mitt Regan

This week on “Intelligence Matters,” host Michael Morell engages with Georgetown law professor Mitt Regan, delving into the profound insights of Regan’s new book, Drone Strike: Analyzing the Impacts of Targeted Killing. Their discussion navigates complex issues surrounding drone warfare, including its implications for al-Qaeda, civilian casualties, and the ethics of employing such methods outside traditional war zones.

The Impact of Drone Strikes on Al-Qaeda

One of the striking revelations from Regan’s research is that drone strikes have had a negligible effect on the growth and resilience of al-Qaeda. Regan states, “The research indicates… that strikes against al-Qaeda leaders generally had no impact on the continuation and growth of al-Qaeda or on the number of strikes that the al-Qaeda network conducted.” This finding challenges the initial belief that targeted killings would significantly weaken the terrorist organization. In fact, the number of al-Qaeda fighters today exceeds pre-9/11 levels.

Civilian Casualties: A Continuing Debate

The conversation naturally shifts to the sensitive topic of civilian casualties, a critical concern for both policymakers and the public. Regan highlights a decline in civilian casualty rates—falling from approximately 11% of casualties before 2013 to just over 3% afterward. However, he notes there is still a significant gap in systematic civilian casualty mitigation efforts, particularly concerning operations by certain military and intelligence agencies.

The necessity for greater transparency is palpable, as Regan argues that the U.S. must learn from local and non-governmental organizations on the ground regarding civilian impacts. Historically, the U.S. has faced criticism for its claims surrounding civilian casualties, which sometimes do not align with on-the-ground realities.

Ethical Considerations of Drone Warfare

The ethical dimension of drone strikes, primarily when executed outside active combat zones, is a focal point of Regan’s analysis. He posits that drone strikes can be ethically justified “when they’re used within fairly stringent guidelines.” The guidelines, as Regan describes, should include efforts to ascertain whether capture of a target is feasible and ensuring “near certainty of no civilian casualties.”

Regan argues that the criteria established by the Obama administration in 2013, although occasionally relaxed by subsequent administrations, represent an appropriate ethical framework for targeted killings. His examination sheds light on the imperative of assessing alternatives to lethal force and suggests that there can be instances where drone strikes may result in fewer casualties than traditional military operations.

Local Populations and Perceptions of U.S. Involvement

Another significant aspect of the discussion reveals the perceived impact drone strikes have on local populations. While there is evidence of resentment toward U.S. operations among affected civilians, Regan clarifies that this resentment does not necessarily lead to radicalization or increased support for terrorist groups. Many communities disapprove of strikes and the presence of militant groups alike, often viewing both as disruptive forces in their lives.

This nuanced understanding underscores the importance of evaluating how U.S. actions in these regions can affect local governance and the legitimacy of host nations. Regan emphasizes the delicate balance the U.S. must maintain in counterterrorism efforts to avoid counterproductive outcomes.

Legal Frameworks and Decision-Making

The discussion unveils the legally complex landscape of drone strikes, particularly concerning U.S. citizens and strikes outside war zones. Regan reflects on the legal justifications the U.S. has employed, noting criticisms that arise from both international law and domestic perspectives. He examines cases like the targeted killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, arguing that it arguably fell outside established legal frameworks of armed conflict.

As discussions unfold around targeted killings, Regan expresses the need for clarity in the legal rationale, emphasizing the significance of justifying actions post-strike and ensuring due process considerations are met, particularly in cases involving U.S. citizens.

Future Implications for U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

Through Regan’s insights, it becomes evident that while advancements in drone technology and strategy have reshaped counterterrorism, the effectiveness and ethical implications require continual scrutiny and adaptation. Regan emphasizes that transparency in operations and engagement with local populations are crucial in maintaining legitimacy, not just on domestic fronts but globally as well.

The discussion intricately weaves through waves of historical context, moral philosophy, and current geopolitical implications, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on the ongoing dilemma of lethal drone warfare. As the U.S. navigates its role in global counterterrorism, these insights appear more pertinent than ever, highlighting the intricate dance between security, ethics, and international relations.