The Evolution of Drones: From Hobbyist Toys to Instruments of War
A Brief History of Small Drones
Just a dozen years ago, small drones were primarily high-tech gadgets for hobbyists. DIY enthusiasts assembled their own drones from kits, while innovative U.S. startups like 3D Robotics—founded by former Wired editor Chris Anderson—focused on creating quadcopters geared towards photographers and tech aficionados. Around the same time, Chinese company DJI Technology made waves in the U.S. market with its cost-effective and user-friendly Phantom drones.
Initially, small drones were perceived as tools for leisure or niche applications like wedding photography and real estate. Visionaries like Anderson recognized their potential in more critical fields, such as precision agriculture and search-and-rescue missions. Some foresaw the use of stealthy small drones on the battlefield, but military interest was lukewarm at best. The Pentagon and its contractors failed to grasp the potential of these devices, seeing them more as toys than instruments of warfare.
The Surge of the Civilian Drone Market
While military officials overlooked this emerging technology, the civilian market for small drones surged. DJI adeptly undercut its competitors, benefiting from China’s advanced manufacturing capabilities and lower labor costs. The company had ready access to essential high-tech components, from powerful batteries to cutting-edge GPS sensors and cameras, all produced within its home country.
By 2016, facing a deluge of imports, Anderson and 3D Robotics pivoted away from consumer drones to focus on software for advanced applications—particularly those that relied on autonomous operation. This shift mirrored a broader trend: U.S. tech firms would develop innovative products, but manufacturing often migrated overseas. Today, DJI dominates the global small drone market, accounting for approximately 90% of sales.
The Lessons from Ukraine
The landscape of drone technology shifted dramatically with the onset of the Ukraine war. Modern warfare often reveals advancements in military technology only after they’ve inflicted significant damage. World War I revealed the devastating power of artillery, while Pearl Harbor indicated that aircraft carriers would dominate naval warfare. Today, the war in Ukraine has spotlighted the revolutionary role of drones.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, they initially employed traditional military tactics, deploying ground troops and armored vehicles towards Kyiv. However, these strategies faltered as Ukrainian forces discovered innovative uses for commercially available DJI drones. Beyond surveillance, Ukrainian tech-savvy units began modifying first-person-view (FPV) drones to drop explosives with remarkable precision. This tactic contributed significantly to crippling Russian armor, accounting for devastating losses of over 3,600 tanks and nearly 9,000 armored vehicles throughout 2024.
A New Form of Warfare
Ukrainian drone technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with advancements transforming the battlefield. As one Ukrainian drone builder noted, “We are inventing a new way of war.” This rapid evolution in drone usage has not gone unnoticed in Russia; the military has quickly adapted, deploying diverse drones and replicating Ukrainian innovations—resulting in an arms race of aerial combat capabilities.
The war has illuminated the vulnerability of traditional military assets like tanks. With drones surveilling the battlefield, forces must remain constantly vigilant to avoid devastating strikes. The operational scope of inexpensive drones allows both Ukrainian and Russian forces to extend their reach deep into each other’s territories; notably, Ukraine has struck airbases within Russia, causing extensive damage at a fraction of the cost of conventional missile strikes.
The Industrial Implications for the U.S.
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, it highlights a stark reality for the U.S.: the next major conflict may hinge on the ability to produce and deploy vast numbers of drones. The Pentagon’s current procurement processes, known for being sluggish and traditional, are ill-suited for the fast-paced demands of modern warfare. Moreover, the U.S. lacks a domestic industry capable of manufacturing inexpensive drones at scale. Unlike during World War II, when the U.S. rapidly adjusted its industrial base for military needs, the American drone industry remains largely undeveloped.
This poses significant challenges, especially in the face of rising tensions with China. The ability to call upon manufacturers like DJI for large-scale military production is nonexistent. Analysts have pointed out that the foundation for producing military drones relies on an integrated ecosystem of components, materials, and technological know-how—what economist Noah Smith refers to as the “Electric Tech Stack.”
Understanding the Electric Tech Stack
The concept of the Electric Tech Stack encompasses the various layers of technology and capabilities essential for modern production, from raw materials like lithium and cobalt to intricate computer chips. With the U.S. currently reliant on foreign supply chains—particularly for rare earth elements essential to drones and electronics—there is a pressing need to rethink domestic manufacturing strategies.
Most essential components are mass-produced for consumer goods, making it clear that mere outsourcing has compromised America’s manufacturing prowess. Currently, the U.S. has only one operational mine for producing rare earth elements vital for electronics. The overwhelming majority of this industry is dominated by China, which controls nearly 92% of rare earth magnet production.
Proposed Solutions and the Role of the Pentagon
To reestablish a competitive manufacturing landscape, the U.S. will need to adopt thoughtful industrial policies rather than overly simplistic measures like tariffs. These protective policies have historically backfired, leading to increased costs for consumers without truly reviving domestic manufacturing. Instead, the focus should shift to empowering American innovators through the removal of regulatory barriers, particularly those that hinder advanced drone technology.
Chris Anderson of 3D Robotics highlights that regulatory frameworks at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) limit the broader application of drone technology. Instead of handouts for certain industries, a streamlined regulatory environment would foster innovation, allowing advanced drone capabilities to flourish.
Moreover, Anderson expresses regret that the Pentagon failed to recognize the potential for military drones when they remained rooted in established protocols. Rather than investing in legacy systems, a shift towards fostering competition through platforms like DARPA could rejuvenate the American drone industry.
A Call for Vision
A potentially transformative approach would involve launching competitions for new military drone technologies, echoing successful initiatives in civilian aerospace. Such initiatives could stimulate venture capital interest and create a groundswell of support for domestic production capabilities.
By recognizing the importance of the Electric Tech Stack and investing in necessary reforms, the U.S. can regain its footing in the burgeoning drone market—essential not just for military supremacy but for broader technological advancement. In an age characterized by rapid evolution in warfare, a forward-thinking approach could redefine what it means to innovate in the realm of defense and technology.