A new report
warns that Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine showed no sign of easing in November, despite marginal improvements in interception rates, with sustained pressure on energy infrastructure, cities, and civilians continuing to define the conflict.
The latest edition of the Ukraine Air War Monitor, published by Kyiv Dialogue, describes the situation as “extremely critical.” Russia’s strategy combines mass drone attacks with cruise and ballistic missile strikes, creating a relentless assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure. This multifaceted attack has severely hampered civilian life, particularly as winter descends and energy needs spike.
According to the analysis, Ukraine has sustained staggering losses in electricity generation capacity, with reports indicating a loss of roughly 70 percent since the onset of the conflict in 2022. November witnessed renewed, targeted airstrikes that once again plunged the country into widespread power outages and placed heating networks—crucial for survival in the frigid months—under substantial strain.
The data outlined in the report reveals a continued escalation in the use of long-range drones by Russian forces. In November, Russia deployed an astonishing 5,444 long-range drones—an increase of three percent from October. While the report indicates a slight reduction in cruise missile launches to 108 and ballistic missiles to 106, the sheer number of drone attacks was staggering. On seven separate nights, over 400 drone assaults were recorded, culminating in a singular attack on November 29 that involved an unprecedented 596 drones. This relentless pace illustrates the formidable scale and persistence of the Russian air campaign.
The report also sheds light on the innovative adaptations taking place on the Russian side. For the first time, researchers observed an R-60 air-to-air missile integrated into a downed Shahed drone, signaling a potential shift in tactical experimentation. The introduction of new Iranian-supplied variants, including the Shahed-107, expands the operational capabilities of Russian forces, improving both reconnaissance and attack options.
On the other side of the conflict, Ukraine is not standing still. The report highlights meaningful advancements in its air defense technologies, particularly with the introduction of interceptor drones. The Ukrainian military has begun serial production of the Octopus interceptor drone and is leveraging the Sting drone to combat Russian Geran-3 systems. Furthermore, France’s assistance in developing a multilayered defense system based on FPV drones adds another layer of protection for Ukrainian territories. Despite these advancements, the report underscores Ukraine’s ongoing reliance on Western support—especially for critical systems like the Patriot air defense system, interceptor missiles, and electronic warfare equipment.
A crucial aspect of the analysis is the emphasis on deep precision strike capabilities as Ukraine looks ahead to 2026. Disrupting Russia’s logistics and production chains is paramount; this requires Ukraine to effectively strike military targets inside Russia itself. The report notes that indigenous systems like Flamingo, Long Neptune, and Sapsan currently lack the payload necessary for such operations. Hence, the continuous supply of Western long-range systems—such as Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG, ATACMS, and Taurus—is deemed essential to prevent any capabilities gap that might undermine Ukraine’s military effectiveness and its bargaining power in future negotiations.
Drawing from a comprehensive database encompassing over 70,000 documented Russian airstrikes on civilian targets since the autumn of 2022, the Ukraine Air War Monitor aims to provide data-driven recommendations. Its authors are committed to improving Western support strategies for the protection of Ukrainian cities while broadening the discussion on European security as a whole. With insights rooted in real data, the report serves as an urgent call for robust international action to address the dire realities faced by Ukraine in this prolonged conflict.